4 bets our expert loves this week in Georgia

Our experts think Davis Riley is set for a strong performance this week in one of his favorite parts of the country.

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Winter is coming.

But there’s one more stop on the PGA Tour’s 2022-23 fall schedule: the RSM Classic in Sea Island, Georgia.

Tony Finau is on the court, fresh off a blistering victory last week in Houston. He is also the heavy favorite on the betting board, followed by Brian Harman, Jason Day and Seamus Power.


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So who do you have?

Andy Lack has a few suggestions. In keeping with his weekly custom, Golf.com’s expert tipster crunched the numbers, evaluating both course and player stats to arrive at his top four picks for the event: a winner, a top 10, a top 40 and a matchup.

Lack does this for a living. But because we also like to see where public opinion leans, we also share data from To babblea free mobile platform (and subsidiary of Golf.com) that offers fans an array of ways to engage in the action.

You can see that information, along with Lack’s picks, below.

Andy Lack’s Picks

Immediate pick to win: Tom Hoge (+3,100)

(Odds available on Bet365)

After a disappointing missed cut to the Mayakoba Championship, Hoge is ready to bounce back on a course that has served him well over the years. With three top-25 finishes, two top-10 finishes and a fourth place finish here last year, the 33-year-old clearly feels at home here. This should come as no surprise, as the TCU product is one of the most accurate drivers in this area, and it also remains the number one wedge in this area. His breakthrough victory last year at Pebble Beach came at another coastal golf course. I expect him to find similar success this week in Georgia.

Top 10: Davis Riley (+450)

(Odds available on DraftKings Sportsbook):

While Riley’s (76th MC) course history at Sea Island certainly leaves a lot to be desired, it’s worth mentioning that the Mississippi native finished 25th and 11th on this course in the 2016 and 2017 SEC Championship. Riley played his college golf in Alabama, and many of his best putting performances on the PGA Tour, including his two career victories on the Korn Ferry Tour, have come on the greens of Bermuda. After a solid 27th at the Houston Open where he gained more than two shots off the tee and 3.5 shots on the approach, look for the 25-year-old to bring his momentum back to his favorite part of the country.

Top 40: Justin Lower

Similar to Hoge, Lower is a player I’m excited about this week because of his elite mid-to-short iron game. After Hoge, Lower ranks second in that area in long-term closeness 125-175. The 33-year-old just missed a cut last week in Houston, but is now returning to a course that suits him better. Lower has already racked up top 20s this fall at shorter, positional and heavy golf courses such as Port Royal, TPC Summerlin and Silverado, and I expect his solid form to continue this week.

Matchup: Matt Kuchar (-120) vs. Taylor Moore:

While I have concerns about Kuchar’s ability to close out a tournament at this point in his career, he remains a solid option to finish in the top 30 in any given week. The nine-time PGA Tour winner finished 30th or better in his three starts this fall, and now he’s returning to a course where he’s finished in the top-30 six times in eight appearances. Taylor Moore, on the other hand, is a more volatile option. He struggled mightily in Houston last week despite catching the downside of the draw, and he’s a well-below-par corner player. I expect the veteran to roll in this game.

Tweet Data

As the name suggests, the game Trifecta on Chirp invites users to make three choices: a favorite, a contender and a long shot, with all categories based on the official world golf rankings. With hundreds of votes already received, here’s a look at the leaders in each category, along with the percentage of support they received. To have fun, sign up for free Chirp here.

Favorite

Tony Finau (59.14)

Kevin Kisner (11.28)

Brian Harman (5.84)

Competitor

Webb Simpson (15.18)

Joel Dahmen (14.79)

Jason Day (14.79)

Long shot

Patton Kizzire (16.34)

David Lingmerth (12.45)

josh sense

Josh Sens

Golf.com Contributor

A golf, food and travel writer, Josh Sens has been a contributor to GOLF Magazine since 2004 and now contributes to all GOLF platforms. His work has been anthologized in The Best American Sportswriting. He is also co-author, with Sammy Hagar, of Are We Have Any Fun Yet: the Cooking and Partying Handbook.